“Complex and open-minded thought is most likely to be activated when decision makers learn prior to forming any opinions that they will be accountable to an audience (a) whose views are unknown, (b) who is interested in accuracy (c) who is reasonably well-informed, and (d) who has a legitimate reason for inquiring into the reasons behind participants’ choices.”

– J. H. Lerner & P.E. Tetlock

“Decisions are bets on the future, and they aren’t right or wrong based on whether they turn out well on any particular iteration. An unwanted result doesn’t make our decision wrong if we thought about the alternatives and probabilities in advance and allocated our resources accordingly… When we think probabilistically, we are less likely to use adverse results alone as proof that we made a decision error, because we recognize the possibility that the decision might have been good but luck and/or incomplete information intervened.”

– Annie Duke

“Using an iterative algorithm to solve a problem is a bit like following a road, possibly long and difficult. With each iteration, you have a method that takes you a single step closer. To ensure that you move forward, you need to have a measure of progress telling you how far you are either from your starting location or from your destination.
You cannot expect to know exactly where the algorithm will go. On the other hand, you do not want to have to know how to handle every ditch and dead end in the world. As you travel, worry about one step at a time.
You must know how to get onto the road from any start location. From every place along the road, you must know what actions you will take in order to step forward. Finally, you must reach your destination in a reasonable amount of time.”

– Jeff Edmunds